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Explain how changes in commodity prices have influenced Australia’ s terms oftrade and the current account in recent years

Question

Explain how changes in commodity prices have influenced Australia’s terms of trade and the current account in recent years

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Solution

Australia's economy is heavily dependent on commodity exports, including iron ore, coal, and natural gas. Therefore, changes in commodity prices can significantly influence Australia's terms of trade and the current account.

  1. Terms of Trade: The terms of trade is the ratio of export prices to import prices. When commodity prices rise, Australia's export prices increase relative to its import prices, improving the terms of trade. This means Australia can buy more imports for each unit of exports. Conversely, when commodity prices fall, Australia's export prices decrease relative to its import prices, worsening the terms of trade.

    For example, during the mining boom from 2005 to 2011, high commodity prices significantly improved Australia's terms of trade. However, when commodity prices fell sharply in 2015, Australia's terms of trade deteriorated.

  2. Current Account: The current account measures the balance of trade (exports minus imports) plus net income from abroad. When commodity prices rise, the value of Australia's commodity exports increases, leading to a higher trade surplus (or smaller deficit) and improving the current account. Conversely, when commodity prices fall, the value of Australia's commodity exports decreases, leading to a lower trade surplus (or larger deficit) and worsening the current account.

    For example, high commodity prices during the mining boom contributed to Australia's current account surpluses. However, when commodity prices fell in 2015, Australia's current account moved into deficit.

In recent years, fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, have continued to influence Australia's terms of trade and the current account. For instance, the surge in iron ore prices in 2020 due to supply disruptions in Brazil and strong demand from China significantly improved Australia's terms of trade and current account. However, any future declines in commodity prices could reverse these improvements.

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