As More Ice Cream Is Eaten... the Crime Rate Goes Up (or Association vs. Causality)

This statement is an example of a correlation that does not imply causation. It's likely that both ice cream consumption and crime rates go up during the summer months, hence the correlation. However, one does not cause the other. Here's a step-by-step breakdown:

1. Identify the two variables: In this case, the variables are ice cream consumption and crime rates.

2. Observe the correlation: Both ice cream consumption and crime rates increase at the same time.

3. Consider possible causation: It might be tempting to think that eating more ice cream somehow leads to an increase in crime. However, this is unlikely to be the case.

4. Identify a lurking variable: A lurking variable is a variable that is not among the variables considered but could affect the interpretation of the relationship between the variables. In this case, the lurking variable could be the weather. Both ice cream consumption and crime rates might increase during the warmer months.

5. Conclusion: While there is a correlation between ice cream consumption and crime rates, one does not cause the other. Instead, both are likely influenced by a third factor, such as the weather.