if we do not know the true probability of success, can we find a ”bestestimate” for it,

Yes, we can find a "best estimate" for the true probability of success even if we do not know it. This is often done using statistical methods. Here are the steps:

1. Collect Data: The first step is to collect data. This could be from a survey, experiment, or any other method that gives you data about successful and unsuccessful outcomes.

2. Calculate Sample Proportion: The next step is to calculate the sample proportion (p̂). This is done by dividing the number of successful outcomes by the total number of outcomes. This gives us a point estimate of the probability of success.

3. Confidence Interval: While the sample proportion gives us a point estimate, it might not be the true probability of success. To account for this, we can calculate a confidence interval around the sample proportion. This gives us a range of values that the true probability of success is likely to fall within.

4. Adjust Based on Additional Information: If we have additional information, we might adjust our estimate. For example, if we know that our data is biased in some way, we might adjust our estimate to account for this.

5. Repeat: As we collect more data, we can repeat this process to get a better estimate of the true probability of success.

Remember, this is just an estimate. The true probability of success might still be different from our estimate. However, this process gives us a way to make an informed guess about the true probability of success based on the data we have.