50% chanceLoss of 25 $50% chanceWin of X $ X should be at least $ to make the lottery acceptable.
Question
50% chance Loss of 25
50% chance Win of X
should be at least
$ to make the lottery acceptable.
Solution
1. Break Down the Problem
We need to find the value of that makes participating in this lottery acceptable, considering the probabilities and outcomes involved.
2. Relevant Concepts
To find the acceptable value of , we can use the concept of expected value (EV). The EV of a gamble is calculated as follows:
Where:
- (50% chance to win)
- (amount won)
- (50% chance to lose)
- (amount lost)
We want the expected value to be at least 0 (breaking even), so we set up the equation:
3. Analysis and Detail
Now let's solve the equation step by step:
-
Set up the equation:
-
Rearranging terms:
-
Solving for :
4. Verify and Summarize
The expected value calculation confirms that if , you neither lose nor gain; thus, should be at least $25 for the lottery to be acceptable.
Final Answer
The value of should be at least $25 to make the lottery acceptable.
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